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Dr. Thomas Chadefaux

Assistant Professor (Political Science)

Thomas Chadefaux holds an M.A. in international politics from the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. Prior to becoming an assistant Professor of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin, he has been a visiting assistant professor in the department of political science at the University of Rochester and a postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zurich.
  BARGAINING   BARGAINING POWER   BARGAINING THEORY   civil war   CONFLICT   Econometrics/Forecasting   FORECASTING   Game Theory   international conflict   Interstate war
Details Date
. Editorial Board Member, Data Science
Language Skill Reading Skill Writing Skill Speaking
English Fluent Fluent Fluent
French Fluent Fluent Fluent
German Fluent Medium Medium
Japanese Basic Basic Basic
Details Date From Date To
American Political Science Association 2004
American Economic Association 2009
Midwest Political Science Association 2005
Spaiser, Viktoria, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay and Dirk Helbing., Communication power struggles on social media: A case study of the 2011-12 Russian protests, Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 2017, p1 - 47, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, Market Anticipations of Conflict Onsets. , Journal of Peace Research , 54, (2), 2017, p1 - 18, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, Conflict Forecasting and its Limits, Data Science, 1, (1), 2017, p1 - 11, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, Market Anticipations of Conflict Onset, 2015, Invited Talk, ACCEPTED
Helbing, Dirk, Dirk Brockmann, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay, Ulf Blanke, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Mehdi Moussaid, Anders Johansson, Jens Krause, Sebastian Schutte, Matjaz Perc, Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems Can Contribute, Journal of Statistical Physics, June, 2015, p1 - 47, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, 'ACCESS', 2015, -, Map, GIS map, PUBLISHED
Thomas Chadefaux, News and War, 1.0, Journal of Peace Research, 2014, Dataset, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, Early Warning Signals for War in the News, Journal of Peace Research, 51, (1), 2014, p1 - 14, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, Dirk Helbing, The Rationality of Prejudices, PLoS One, 7, (2), 2012, p1 - 10, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL
Thomas Chadefaux, Bargaining over Power: When Do Shifts in Power Lead to War? , International Theory, 3, (2), 2011, p228 - 253, Journal Article, PUBLISHED  URL

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Thomas Chadefaux, The Triggers of War: Disentangling the Spark from the Powder Keg., 2014, Working Paper, SUBMITTED


Award Date
Best Paper award, Oxford, "Internet, Politics, Policy" conference Sept. 2012
Best visualisation award 2014
Best visualisation award, Journal of Peace Research 2014
My current research focuses on the causes of interstate conflict and on their prediction. In particular, I rely on large amounts of fine-grained spatial and temporal data (e.g., newspapers, satellite images, financial markets) to reveal early warning signals for war. I also study the geographic aspects of civil wars. In addition, my interests extend beyond political science to sociology and evolutionary game theory.